{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\thies\OneDrive\00_Promotion\00_Output\00_Paper\2022_Predicting_Econ_Sanctions\Empirics\20231214_Replication\Log_files/02b_Robustness_Selection_Success.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}18 Dec 2023, 16:22:47
{txt}
{com}. 
. ***************************************************************
. ***EU***
. ***************************************************************
. 
. *Prepare data
. use "Dataset.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. keep if sender=="EU"
{txt}(10,154 observations deleted)

{com}. 
. ** Filter for cases of importance
. keep if pot_sanctioned_countries == 1
{txt}(1,296 observations deleted)

{com}. 
. xtset ccodecow year
{res}
{col 1}{txt:Panel variable: }{res:ccodecow}{txt: (unbalanced)}
{p 1 16 2}{txt:Time variable: }{res:year}{txt:, }{res:{bind:1989}}{txt: to }{res:{bind:2015}}{p_end}
{txt}{col 10}Delta: {res}1 unit
{txt}
{com}. gen ln_oil_gas_value_2014 = ln(oil_gas_value_2014+1)
{txt}(197 missing values generated)

{com}. gen sender_colony=0
{txt}
{com}. replace sender_colony=1 if ht_colonial==2 | ht_colonial==3 | ht_colonial==6 | ht_colonial==7 | ht_colonial==8 | ht_colonial==9 | ht_colonial==10
{txt}(2,539 real changes made)

{com}. 
. gen sender_additional=cond(threatUS==1 | impositionUS == 1, 1, 0)
{txt}
{com}. gen only_threat=cond(threatEU==1 & impositionEU == 0, 1, 0)
{txt}
{com}. 
. gen sender_trade = ln_EU_Trade_Eurostat
{txt}(20 missing values generated)

{com}. gen coup_dummy = coup1
{txt}(5 missing values generated)

{com}. replace coup_dummy = 0 if coup_dummy == 1
{txt}(61 real changes made)

{com}. replace coup_dummy = 1 if coup_dummy == 2
{txt}(45 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * variable which is 1 if a threat or sanction case started in the dyad
. replace caseid=0 if caseid==.
{txt}(3,299 real changes made)

{com}. gen sanctiononset = (caseid-l.caseid)
{txt}(147 missing values generated)

{com}. replace sanctiononset=1 if sanctiononset > 1 & !missing(sanctiononset)
{txt}(89 real changes made)

{com}. replace sanctiononset=0 if sanctiononset < 0
{txt}(68 real changes made)

{com}. replace sanctiononset=. if sanctiononset == 0 & (sanction_dyad == 1 | threat_dyad == 1)
{txt}(384 real changes made, 384 to missing)

{com}. tab sanctiononset

{txt}sanctionons {c |}
         et {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      3,161       97.26       97.26
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         89        2.74      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      3,250      100.00
{txt}
{com}. gen sanctiononset_train=sanctiononset if year < 2009
{txt}(1,417 missing values generated)

{com}. gen sanctiononset_test=sanctiononset if year >= 2009
{txt}(2,895 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * include threat intensity into intensity measure
. gen intensity = impositionEU_target
{txt}(3,330 missing values generated)

{com}. replace intensity=threatEU_target if missing(intensity)
{txt}(31 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * combine intensity 1-2 & 3-5, because almost no cases
. *3-4,5
. replace intensity=1 if intensity==1 | intensity==2 
{txt}(10 real changes made)

{com}. replace intensity=2 if intensity==3 | intensity==4 
{txt}(386 real changes made)

{com}. replace intensity=3 if intensity==5
{txt}(20 real changes made)

{com}. replace intensity=4 if intensity==6
{txt}(51 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * Gradualism
. gen gradualism = impositionEU_gradualism
{txt}(3,330 missing values generated)

{com}. replace gradualism=1 if missing(impositionEU_gradualism) & sanctiononset==1
{txt}(19 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * HSE score
. * 6; 12
. gen ordsuccess=0 if sanctiononset == 1
{txt}(3,692 missing values generated)

{com}. replace ordsuccess=1 if HSEscore == 6 | HSEscore == 9
{txt}(203 real changes made)

{com}. replace ordsuccess=2 if HSEscore == 12 | HSEscore == 16
{txt}(63 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * create training and test variable
. gen ordsuccess_train= ordsuccess*sanctiononset_train
{txt}(3,712 missing values generated)

{com}. gen ordsuccess_test= ordsuccess*sanctiononset_test
{txt}(3,761 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Selection model
. eststo:heckoprobit ordsuccess_train i.intensity L.v2x_polyarchy L.gd_ptss i.L.coup_dummy i.L.one_sided_violence i.L.conflict i.L.mid_terr_integrity L.ln_GDPpc_imputed L.sender_trade L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014 i.L.sender_colony i.L.defense_alliance i.sender_additional i.only_threat gradualism, select(sanctiononset_train = L.v2x_polyarchy L.gd_ptss i.L.mid_terr_integrity L.ln_GDPpc_imputed L.sender_trade i.L.conflict L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014)

{txt}Fitting oprobit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-69.606204}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-57.313983}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-57.206425}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-57.206233}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-57.206233}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-298.99813}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-276.27885}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -274.7469}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-274.74368}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-274.74368}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-331.94991

{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-331.94991}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-331.94985}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-331.94965}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-331.94964}  
{res}


{txt}Ordered probit model with sample selection      Number of obs     = {res}     2,171
{txt}                                                      Selected    = {res}        67
                                                {txt}      Nonselected = {res}     2,104

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}17{txt})     =  {res}    15.74
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-331.9496                      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.5425

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}ordsuccess_train      {txt}{c |}
{space 12}intensity {c |}
{space 19}2  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .7109557{col 35}{space 2} .6611103{col 46}{space 1}    1.08{col 55}{space 3}0.282{col 63}{space 4}-.5847966{col 76}{space 3} 2.006708
{txt}{space 19}3  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.113856{col 35}{space 2} 1.341951{col 46}{space 1}    0.83{col 55}{space 3}0.407{col 63}{space 4} -1.51632{col 76}{space 3} 3.744033
{txt}{space 19}4  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.927659{col 35}{space 2} 1.287513{col 46}{space 1}    1.50{col 55}{space 3}0.134{col 63}{space 4}-.5958209{col 76}{space 3} 4.451139
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 8}v2x_polyarchy {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9939127{col 35}{space 2}  2.38303{col 46}{space 1}    0.42{col 55}{space 3}0.677{col 63}{space 4} -3.67674{col 76}{space 3} 5.664566
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 14}gd_ptss {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0921668{col 35}{space 2} .2664248{col 46}{space 1}   -0.35{col 55}{space 3}0.729{col 63}{space 4}-.6143498{col 76}{space 3} .4300162
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}L.coup_dummy {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -1.44544{col 35}{space 2} .7486444{col 46}{space 1}   -1.93{col 55}{space 3}0.054{col 63}{space 4}-2.912756{col 76}{space 3} .0218756
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.one_sided_violence {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .071596{col 35}{space 2} .4171291{col 46}{space 1}    0.17{col 55}{space 3}0.864{col 63}{space 4} -.745962{col 76}{space 3} .8891539
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 11}L.conflict {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0849782{col 35}{space 2} 1.066982{col 46}{space 1}    0.08{col 55}{space 3}0.937{col 63}{space 4}-2.006269{col 76}{space 3} 2.176225
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.mid_terr_integrity {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.2294872{col 35}{space 2} .7094831{col 46}{space 1}   -0.32{col 55}{space 3}0.746{col 63}{space 4}-1.620049{col 76}{space 3} 1.161074
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 5}ln_GDPpc_imputed {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2406564{col 35}{space 2} .3780778{col 46}{space 1}    0.64{col 55}{space 3}0.524{col 63}{space 4}-.5003625{col 76}{space 3} .9816752
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}sender_trade {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1195006{col 35}{space 2} .2679446{col 46}{space 1}   -0.45{col 55}{space 3}0.656{col 63}{space 4}-.6446624{col 76}{space 3} .4056612
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
ln_oil_gas_value_2014 {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0217169{col 35}{space 2} .0229571{col 46}{space 1}   -0.95{col 55}{space 3}0.344{col 63}{space 4} -.066712{col 76}{space 3} .0232782
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 6}L.sender_colony {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1984088{col 35}{space 2} .3967071{col 46}{space 1}    0.50{col 55}{space 3}0.617{col 63}{space 4}-.5791229{col 76}{space 3} .9759405
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}L.defense_alliance {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2659342{col 35}{space 2} .5394123{col 46}{space 1}    0.49{col 55}{space 3}0.622{col 63}{space 4}-.7912945{col 76}{space 3} 1.323163
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 2}1.sender_additional {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .8041012{col 35}{space 2} .3937839{col 46}{space 1}    2.04{col 55}{space 3}0.041{col 63}{space 4} .0322989{col 76}{space 3} 1.575904
{txt}{space 8}1.only_threat {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  -.30893{col 35}{space 2} .4021246{col 46}{space 1}   -0.77{col 55}{space 3}0.442{col 63}{space 4} -1.09708{col 76}{space 3} .4792197
{txt}{space 11}gradualism {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.2068961{col 35}{space 2} .2060266{col 46}{space 1}   -1.00{col 55}{space 3}0.315{col 63}{space 4}-.6107008{col 76}{space 3} .1969087
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}sanctiononset_train   {txt}{c |}
{space 8}v2x_polyarchy {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.8179963{col 35}{space 2} .3045015{col 46}{space 1}   -2.69{col 55}{space 3}0.007{col 63}{space 4}-1.414808{col 76}{space 3}-.2211844
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 14}gd_ptss {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0667593{col 35}{space 2} .0709908{col 46}{space 1}    0.94{col 55}{space 3}0.347{col 63}{space 4}-.0723801{col 76}{space 3} .2058987
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.mid_terr_integrity {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1660458{col 35}{space 2} .2050285{col 46}{space 1}   -0.81{col 55}{space 3}0.418{col 63}{space 4}-.5678942{col 76}{space 3} .2358026
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 5}ln_GDPpc_imputed {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1252725{col 35}{space 2} .0693903{col 46}{space 1}   -1.81{col 55}{space 3}0.071{col 63}{space 4} -.261275{col 76}{space 3} .0107299
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}sender_trade {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0802445{col 35}{space 2} .0458704{col 46}{space 1}    1.75{col 55}{space 3}0.080{col 63}{space 4}-.0096598{col 76}{space 3} .1701488
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 11}L.conflict {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .4290884{col 35}{space 2} .1466281{col 46}{space 1}    2.93{col 55}{space 3}0.003{col 63}{space 4} .1417026{col 76}{space 3} .7164742
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
ln_oil_gas_value_2014 {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0019037{col 35}{space 2} .0074607{col 46}{space 1}   -0.26{col 55}{space 3}0.799{col 63}{space 4}-.0165264{col 76}{space 3}  .012719
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-2.593666{col 35}{space 2} .7758429{col 46}{space 1}   -3.34{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4}-4.114291{col 76}{space 3}-1.073042
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}/cut1 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1108487{col 35}{space 2} 8.509392{col 46}{space 1}   -0.01{col 55}{space 3}0.990{col 63}{space 4}-16.78895{col 76}{space 3} 16.56725
{txt}{space 16}/cut2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} 1.336853{col 35}{space 2}  8.22586{col 46}{space 1}    0.16{col 55}{space 3}0.871{col 63}{space 4}-14.78554{col 76}{space 3} 17.45924
{txt}{space 14}/athrho {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0951486{col 35}{space 2} 2.648261{col 46}{space 1}    0.04{col 55}{space 3}0.971{col 63}{space 4}-5.095347{col 76}{space 3} 5.285644
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                  rho {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0948625{col 35}{space 2} 2.624429{col 63}{space 4} -.999925{col 76}{space 3} .9999487
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}0.00    {col 59}{txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.9814
{txt}({res}est1{txt} stored)

{com}. 
. 
. ***************************************************************
. ***US***
. ***************************************************************
. 
. *Prepare data
. use "Dataset.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. keep if sender=="US"
{txt}(10,154 observations deleted)

{com}. 
. ** Filter for cases of importance
. keep if pot_sanctioned_countries == 1
{txt}(1,296 observations deleted)

{com}. 
. xtset ccodecow year
{res}
{col 1}{txt:Panel variable: }{res:ccodecow}{txt: (unbalanced)}
{p 1 16 2}{txt:Time variable: }{res:year}{txt:, }{res:{bind:1989}}{txt: to }{res:{bind:2015}}{p_end}
{txt}{col 10}Delta: {res}1 unit
{txt}
{com}. gen ln_oil_gas_value_2014 = ln(oil_gas_value_2014+1)
{txt}(197 missing values generated)

{com}. gen sender_colony = 0
{txt}
{com}. replace sender_colony = 1 if ht_colonial == 4
{txt}(54 real changes made)

{com}. 
. gen sender_additional=cond(threatEU==1 | impositionEU == 1, 1, 0)
{txt}
{com}. gen only_threat=cond(threatUS==1 & impositionUS == 0, 1, 0)
{txt}
{com}. 
. gen sender_trade = ln_US_Trade_COW
{txt}(234 missing values generated)

{com}. gen coup_dummy = coup1
{txt}(5 missing values generated)

{com}. replace coup_dummy = 0 if coup_dummy == 1
{txt}(61 real changes made)

{com}. replace coup_dummy = 1 if coup_dummy == 2
{txt}(45 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * variable which is 1 if a threat or sanction case started in the dyad
. replace caseid=0 if caseid==.
{txt}(2,793 real changes made)

{com}. gen sanctiononset = (caseid-l.caseid)
{txt}(147 missing values generated)

{com}. replace sanctiononset=1 if sanctiononset > 1 & !missing(sanctiononset)
{txt}(178 real changes made)

{com}. replace sanctiononset=0 if sanctiononset < 0
{txt}(123 real changes made)

{com}. replace sanctiononset=. if sanctiononset == 0 & (sanction_dyad == 1 | threat_dyad == 1)
{txt}(791 real changes made, 791 to missing)

{com}. tab sanctiononset

{txt}sanctionons {c |}
         et {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      2,665       93.74       93.74
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        178        6.26      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      2,843      100.00
{txt}
{com}. gen sanctiononset_train=sanctiononset if year < 2009
{txt}(1,762 missing values generated)

{com}. gen sanctiononset_test=sanctiononset if year >= 2009
{txt}(2,957 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * include threat intensity into intensity measure
. gen intensity = impositionUS_target
{txt}(2,920 missing values generated)

{com}. replace intensity=threatUS_target if missing(intensity)
{txt}(127 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * combine intensity 1-2 & 3-5, because almost no cases
. *3-4,5
. replace intensity=1 if intensity==1 | intensity==2 
{txt}(63 real changes made)

{com}. replace intensity=2 if intensity==3 | intensity==4 
{txt}(683 real changes made)

{com}. replace intensity=3 if intensity==5
{txt}(63 real changes made)

{com}. replace intensity=4 if intensity==6
{txt}(159 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * Gradualism
. gen gradualism = impositionUS_gradualism
{txt}(2,924 missing values generated)

{com}. replace gradualism=1 if missing(impositionUS_gradualism) & sanctiononset==1
{txt}(57 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * HSE score
. * 6; 12
. gen ordsuccess=0 if sanctiononset == 1
{txt}(3,603 missing values generated)

{com}. replace ordsuccess=1 if HSEscore == 6 | HSEscore == 9
{txt}(339 real changes made)

{com}. replace ordsuccess=2 if HSEscore == 12 | HSEscore == 16
{txt}(132 real changes made)

{com}. 
. * create training and test variable
. gen ordsuccess_train= ordsuccess*sanctiononset_train
{txt}(3,639 missing values generated)

{com}. gen ordsuccess_test= ordsuccess*sanctiononset_test
{txt}(3,745 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Selection model
. eststo:heckoprobit ordsuccess_train i.intensity L.v2x_polyarchy L.gd_ptss i.L.one_sided_violence i.L.conflict i.L.mid_terr_integrity L.ln_GDPpc_imputed L.sender_trade L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014 i.L.defense_alliance i.sender_additional i.only_threat gradualism, select(sanctiononset_train = L.v2x_polyarchy L.ln_GDPpc_imputed L.sender_trade i.L.one_sided_violence i.L.conflict i.L.mid_terr_integrity L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014)

{txt}Fitting oprobit model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-145.45174}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-126.94847}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-126.86472}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-126.86466}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-126.86466}  
{res}
{txt}Fitting selection model:

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-478.97215}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -460.9438}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-460.57578}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-460.57562}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-460.57562}  
{res}
{txt}Comparison:    log likelihood = {res}-587.44027

{txt}Fitting full model:
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-587.44027}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log likelihood = {res: -587.4402}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log likelihood = {res:-587.44018}  
{res}


{txt}Ordered probit model with sample selection      Number of obs     = {res}     1,826
{txt}                                                      Selected    = {res}       134
                                                {txt}      Nonselected = {res}     1,692

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}15{txt})     =  {res}    28.45
{txt}Log likelihood = {res}-587.4402                      {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0189

{txt}{hline 22}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 23}{c |} Coefficient{col 35}  Std. err.{col 47}      z{col 55}   P>|z|{col 63}     [95% con{col 76}f. interval]
{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}ordsuccess_train      {txt}{c |}
{space 12}intensity {c |}
{space 19}2  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .2908972{col 35}{space 2} .3587323{col 46}{space 1}    0.81{col 55}{space 3}0.417{col 63}{space 4}-.4122051{col 76}{space 3} .9939995
{txt}{space 19}3  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5422798{col 35}{space 2} .7622483{col 46}{space 1}   -0.71{col 55}{space 3}0.477{col 63}{space 4}-2.036259{col 76}{space 3} .9516995
{txt}{space 19}4  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-1.058681{col 35}{space 2} .8066433{col 46}{space 1}   -1.31{col 55}{space 3}0.189{col 63}{space 4}-2.639673{col 76}{space 3} .5223106
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 8}v2x_polyarchy {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3404634{col 35}{space 2} .6410121{col 46}{space 1}    0.53{col 55}{space 3}0.595{col 63}{space 4}-.9158973{col 76}{space 3} 1.596824
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 14}gd_ptss {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0930307{col 35}{space 2} .1429824{col 46}{space 1}    0.65{col 55}{space 3}0.515{col 63}{space 4}-.1872096{col 76}{space 3}  .373271
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.one_sided_violence {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0996133{col 35}{space 2} 1.041906{col 46}{space 1}   -0.10{col 55}{space 3}0.924{col 63}{space 4}-2.141711{col 76}{space 3} 1.942484
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 11}L.conflict {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} -.204738{col 35}{space 2} .5482641{col 46}{space 1}   -0.37{col 55}{space 3}0.709{col 63}{space 4}-1.279316{col 76}{space 3} .8698398
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.mid_terr_integrity {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1429223{col 35}{space 2} .4189861{col 46}{space 1}   -0.34{col 55}{space 3}0.733{col 63}{space 4}-.9641199{col 76}{space 3} .6782754
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 5}ln_GDPpc_imputed {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0927756{col 35}{space 2} .4091627{col 46}{space 1}   -0.23{col 55}{space 3}0.821{col 63}{space 4}-.8947198{col 76}{space 3} .7091686
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}sender_trade {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0590803{col 35}{space 2} .1408066{col 46}{space 1}   -0.42{col 55}{space 3}0.675{col 63}{space 4}-.3350563{col 76}{space 3} .2168956
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
ln_oil_gas_value_2014 {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0123341{col 35}{space 2} .0352958{col 46}{space 1}   -0.35{col 55}{space 3}0.727{col 63}{space 4}-.0815127{col 76}{space 3} .0568444
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 3}L.defense_alliance {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.2476179{col 35}{space 2} .2896577{col 46}{space 1}   -0.85{col 55}{space 3}0.393{col 63}{space 4}-.8153367{col 76}{space 3} .3201008
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 2}1.sender_additional {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}  .157621{col 35}{space 2} .2675397{col 46}{space 1}    0.59{col 55}{space 3}0.556{col 63}{space 4}-.3667472{col 76}{space 3} .6819891
{txt}{space 8}1.only_threat {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .9788366{col 35}{space 2} .2977185{col 46}{space 1}    3.29{col 55}{space 3}0.001{col 63}{space 4}  .395319{col 76}{space 3} 1.562354
{txt}{space 11}gradualism {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0564839{col 35}{space 2} .1335533{col 46}{space 1}    0.42{col 55}{space 3}0.672{col 63}{space 4}-.2052757{col 76}{space 3} .3182435
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}sanctiononset_train   {txt}{c |}
{space 8}v2x_polyarchy {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.0909701{col 35}{space 2} .2282422{col 46}{space 1}   -0.40{col 55}{space 3}0.690{col 63}{space 4}-.5383166{col 76}{space 3} .3563764
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 5}ln_GDPpc_imputed {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.1520176{col 35}{space 2} .0519907{col 46}{space 1}   -2.92{col 55}{space 3}0.003{col 63}{space 4}-.2539175{col 76}{space 3}-.0501178
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 9}sender_trade {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0412627{col 35}{space 2}  .028608{col 46}{space 1}    1.44{col 55}{space 3}0.149{col 63}{space 4}-.0148078{col 76}{space 3} .0973333
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.one_sided_violence {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .3772319{col 35}{space 2}  .148964{col 46}{space 1}    2.53{col 55}{space 3}0.011{col 63}{space 4} .0852677{col 76}{space 3} .6691961
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 11}L.conflict {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .1571495{col 35}{space 2} .1137856{col 46}{space 1}    1.38{col 55}{space 3}0.167{col 63}{space 4}-.0658661{col 76}{space 3} .3801651
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 1}L.mid_terr_integrity {c |}
{space 19}1  {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0457405{col 35}{space 2}  .167429{col 46}{space 1}    0.27{col 55}{space 3}0.785{col 63}{space 4}-.2824144{col 76}{space 3} .3738954
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
ln_oil_gas_value_2014 {c |}
{space 18}L1. {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0116368{col 35}{space 2} .0055685{col 46}{space 1}    2.09{col 55}{space 3}0.037{col 63}{space 4} .0007228{col 76}{space 3} .0225509
{txt}{space 21} {c |}
{space 16}_cons {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.7347498{col 35}{space 2} .3016026{col 46}{space 1}   -2.44{col 55}{space 3}0.015{col 63}{space 4} -1.32588{col 76}{space 3}-.1436196
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 16}/cut1 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2}-.5989862{col 35}{space 2} 4.319634{col 46}{space 1}   -0.14{col 55}{space 3}0.890{col 63}{space 4}-9.065314{col 76}{space 3} 7.867342
{txt}{space 16}/cut2 {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .5101325{col 35}{space 2} 4.187793{col 46}{space 1}    0.12{col 55}{space 3}0.903{col 63}{space 4}-7.697791{col 76}{space 3} 8.718056
{txt}{space 14}/athrho {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0442421{col 35}{space 2} 3.176928{col 46}{space 1}    0.01{col 55}{space 3}0.989{col 63}{space 4}-6.182422{col 76}{space 3} 6.270906
{txt}{hline 22}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
                  rho {c |}{col 23}{res}{space 2} .0442133{col 35}{space 2} 3.170717{col 63}{space 4}-.9999915{col 76}{space 3} .9999929
{txt}{hline 22}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
LR test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}0.00    {col 59}{txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.9890
{txt}({res}est2{txt} stored)

{com}. 
. * Give out regression tables for selection
. esttab est1 est2 using Supplemental_Material\Regression_Tables\Regressions_Success_Selection.rtf, se scalars(chi2 p ll chi2_c p_c) keep(2.intensity 3.intensity 4.intensity L.v2x_polyarchy L.gd_ptss 1L.coup_dummy 1L.one_sided_violence 1L.conflict 1L.mid_terr_integrity L.ln_GDPpc_imputed L.sender_trade L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014 1L.sender_colony 1L.defense_alliance 1.sender_additional 1.only_threat gradualism) order(2.intensity 3.intensity 4.intensity L.v2x_polyarchy L.gd_ptss 1L.coup_dummy 1L.one_sided_violence 1L.conflict 1L.mid_terr_integrity L.ln_GDPpc_imputed L.sender_trade L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014 1L.defense_alliance 1L.sender_colony 1.only_threat 1.sender_additional intensity gradualism) label legend varlabels(2.intensity Intensity_2 3.intensity Intensity_3 4.intensity Intensity_4 L.v2x_polyarchy Dem._Index L.gd_ptss Pol._Terror_Scale 1L.coup_dummy Mil._Coup 1L.one_sided_violence One-sided_Violence 1L.conflict Armed_Conflict 1L.mid_terr_integrity Terr._Integrity L.ln_GDPpc_imputed GDP_p.c. L.sender_trade Sender_Trade L.ln_oil_gas_value_2014 Target_Oil_Gas_Exports 1L.sender_colony Sender_Colony 1L.defense_alliance Defense_Alliance 1.sender_additional Multilateral_US/EU 1.only_threat Threat gradualism Gradualism sanctiononset_train Sanction_Onset) mtitles("EU" "US") eqlabel(" ") wide star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 ** 0.01)
{res}{txt}(output written to {browse  `"Supplemental_Material\Regression_Tables\Regressions_Success_Selection.rtf"'})

{com}. 
. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\thies\OneDrive\00_Promotion\00_Output\00_Paper\2022_Predicting_Econ_Sanctions\Empirics\20231214_Replication\Log_files/02b_Robustness_Selection_Success.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}18 Dec 2023, 16:22:50
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}